This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I believe it’s a great week to concentrate more on cash games. The main GPP is the $8 entrance that pays $10K to 1st place. That’s the best one to chase in my opinion. I will have a couple LUs that I put into a great deal of GPPs hoping I will win them all, but I will not have many LUs in total this week. Other than that, most of my play this week will probably be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a couple of plays I like for UFC Beijing, in addition to my fade of this week.
Money Game play of this week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I think Song Yadong could be the best play on the card this weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favorite on Saturday and I believe that is a struggle the UFC is wanting him to win in his home country. I believe in tournaments, Yadong is going to be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced above him, with much smaller chances of winning ITD. I think you can create a situation to fade him due to his possession in GPPs, but in cash games we do not care about possession. I think that this is a good place to lock in a win and possibly ~100-points, then try to find 3 more wins which we can afford. More often than maybe 4 wins gets the work done in money games.
GPP play of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This battle has got the 2nd highest FDGTD lineup on the card at -400. There is also worth on Hu Yaozong together with him $600 cheaper and the gambling line being nearly even. Normally when there is worth like that within an underdog it makes them one of the very popular fighters on the card. I don’t think both of those guys are UFC level fighters, but I’m a little more impressed by what I have observed from Coulter than the inexperienced Yaozong. I think getting Coulter in GPP lineups in a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense that weekend in a struggle which shouldn’t move all 3-rounds. If either of these men get an early finish they will likely be on the winning lineup. I’m guessing Coulter will be the reduced owned guy of both and that is what makes him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of this week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I like to target this week for UFC Beijing. I haven’t loved producing lineups this week since I hate plugging in two underdogs once I think almost every favorite will find a win. I think the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou since he has a very clear route to success and he has won in this matchup before. The path to victory for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has got the ability to be able to KO anybody on the planet. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends up on the 1st spot lineup, particularly if it’s an early KO. From the first battle between these two men Blaydes was able to receive 2 takedowns, but Ngannou was able to get up fairly fast each time. If he’s in a position to get up like that here, I don’t see any way Blaydes will have the aerobic to attempt to wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is the scarier guy on the toes and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to attack for extended amounts of time. I believe Ngannou is live for an upset here but onto a card, I really don’t enjoy many underdogs I believe he’s the best one to target with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t like targeting any of these women in the 9k selection. I believe they need to all get wins, but I do not see any of them getting 10x their salary. For Mueller, she would need at least 92 DK things to hit 10x and that I believe she has to receive a conclusion to make that happen. Mueller has 5 wins on her MMA record and only 1 of those wins did not go to decision. She only scored 72 DK points in her 1 UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she will not be winning anybody a tournament. In addition, I believe Zhang and Xiaonan have greater odds of winning compared to Mueller does this that is the reason why I picked her over both as my fade of this week. I won’t be making a lot of lineups this week however if I had been making 20 lineups then Mueller will be on zero of these.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on every struggle, my personal approaches & recommendations, and my selection prediction for every fight then you can discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
Read more: manchesterinnews.com